March 2026 TRREB Market Watch — What the Numbers Actually Mean for GTA Buyers
Something Shifted in March
A first-time buyer I spoke with in Springdale this past week had been watching the market since November. Patient. Disciplined. Waiting for the right signal. When I told her March sales just came in up year-over-year for the first time in a while, she got quiet for a second and said: “Is this the part where I stop waiting?”
Honestly? It might be.
The March 2026 TRREB Market Watch dropped on April 7th. Sales came in at 5,039 — up 1.7% year-over-year from 4,956 in March 2025. After February’s 6.3% year-over-year decline, that reversal is not nothing. The market moved.
The average selling price was $1,017,796 — down 6.7% from March 2025’s $1,090,372. Prices are still softer than a year ago across every major home type. That is still real savings for buyers who are ready.
Here is the number that should really get your attention: new listings dropped 16.7% compared to March 2025. There were 14,442 new listings this month versus 17,340 last year. Active listings fell from 23,483 to 21,596. The window of maximum buyer choice is not closing fast — but it is closing.
TL;DR
Sales rose 1.7% year-over-year in March 2026, the first positive sales reading in a while. But prices are still down about 6.7% from last year. New listings dropped 16.7%, which means the supply cushion buyers enjoyed through winter is starting to compress. Buyers still hold the advantage — for now.
At a Glance — Key March 2026 Stats
| Metric | March 2026 | Feb 2026 | March 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales | 5,039 | 3,868 | 4,956 |
| New Listings | 14,442 | 10,705 | 17,340 |
| Active Listings | 21,596 | 19,314 | 23,483 |
| Avg. Sale Price | $1,017,796 | $1,008,968 | $1,090,372 |
| Avg. LDOM | 31 days | 36 days | 24 days |
| Avg. PDOM | 47 days | 54 days | 37 days |
| HPI Composite YoY | −7.4% | −7.9% | — |
| BoC Overnight Rate | 2.3% | 2.3% | — |
Source: TRREB Market Watch, March 2026
February to March: The Market Woke Up
February 2026 was quiet. Sales of 3,868 were the lowest month of the year so far, inventory was elevated, and buyers had time. March changed the mood — not dramatically, but noticeably.
Month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, both sales and new listings were up in March — but sales grew at a faster rate than new listings. That means the Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) trend tightened slightly. TRREB’s Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer noted that if conditions continue to tighten as they did in March, we could see prices level off through the rest of 2026.
Days on market fell too. Average listing days on market dropped from 36 days in February to 31 days in March. Average property days on market went from 54 to 47. That means sellers are waiting less. Buyers are deciding faster. If you have been taking your time on offers, that habit may cost you more than it saves.
None of this means the market has turned. But the trajectory shifted.
Did you know?
The GTA’s Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) trend currently sits at 34.1% — still technically a buyer’s market (under 40%). Once it crosses 60%, it flips to a seller’s market. We are not there yet, but the direction has changed.
What Each Home Type Is Doing
| Home Type | March 2026 Sales | Avg. Price (Total GTA) | Price YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detached | 2,235 | $1,342,375 | −6.4% |
| Semi-Detached | 442 | $1,008,246 | −9.5% |
| Townhouse | 876 | $850,266 | −6.4% |
| Condo Apartment | 1,422 | $620,479 | −9.1% |
The condo apartment market remains the most challenged — and for buyers, that is actually useful information. Average prices are down 9.1% year-over-year GTA-wide, and the City of Toronto condo average sits at $648,287. This is where inventory is deepest and negotiating power is highest. If a condo is on your list, you are in the best position right now that you have been in years.
Detached homes in the 905 averaged $1,248,832 in March, compared to $1,613,066 in the 416. The price gap between the city and suburbs remains wide, which continues to push first-time buyers toward Brampton, Mississauga, and Durham.
Townhouses are interesting. At $850,266 average GTA-wide, they sit in a useful range for buyers who need more space than a condo but cannot stretch to a detached. Sales in this category were up 13.1% year-over-year in the 416 — one of the few positive sale volume signals in the city core.
What This Means If You Are Buying This Spring
Let’s be direct. March 2026 is probably close to as good as buyer conditions get in this cycle. Here is the honest read:
- Prices are still 6 to 9 percent below where they were a year ago, depending on property type. That discount is real money.
- You have 21,596 active listings to choose from — the highest inventory in several years at this time of year.
- Competition is light relative to 2021 and 2022. Bidding wars happen, but they are not the norm.
- The Bank of Canada overnight rate is holding at 2.3%. The prime rate is 4.5%. Fixed mortgage rates (1-year) are at 5.49%. Those are not crisis rates, but they are manageable for buyers who qualified in the stress test.
- New listing supply is shrinking. If the same pattern continues into April and May, choices will narrow and the leverage buyers currently have will erode.
That buyer in Springdale I mentioned at the top? She asked me the same question most buyers ask: should I wait for prices to drop more, or move now? My honest answer: prices are not going to fall another 10% from here. The data does not support that. What the data does support is that right now — spring 2026 — you have more choice, more time, and more leverage than you will have six months from now if this tightening continues.
Not sure if this window applies to your specific situation? It depends on your price range, your home type, and which part of the GTA you’re looking in. Some pockets are tightening faster than others. I can tell you exactly what is happening in the segment you’re targeting — no guesswork. Call or text me directly: 647-892-2411. Takes 10 minutes.
If You Are Selling: Pricing Still Has to Be Honest
The average sale-to-list price ratio across the GTA in March was 98%. That is close to asking — but it means most sellers are not getting over asking either. Homes that are priced correctly sell in about 31 days. Homes that come in too high sit.
Active listings at 21,596 is still elevated. Buyers are not forced into bad decisions. If your pricing reflects 2021 expectations, you will wait — and probably end up lower than if you had priced it right in week one.
The spring market has arrived. Showings are up. Buyers are out. But selective is the right word for where we are — not frantic.
The Medium-Term Supply Problem Nobody Is Talking About Enough
TRREB CEO John DiMichele raised something worth flagging: the GTA housing supply pipeline is thinning out. New home starts have slowed. Condo pre-sales collapsed in 2023 and 2024. The projects that were not started then cannot deliver units in 2026 or 2027.
The federal and provincial governments have moved on HST relief and development charge reductions — both designed to make new home construction economics work again. The Ontario Building Homes and Improving Transportation Infrastructure Act is also in play. These are meaningful policy signals. But policy takes time to become inventory.
For buyers watching from the sidelines waiting for the “perfect” moment: this is probably closer to it than you think. The buyer’s market of right now has a shelf life, and the data from March suggests it just got a little shorter.
What TRREB Leadership Actually Said
TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld: “It’s encouraging to see an uptick in March home sales compared to last month and last year. This suggests that an increasing number of GTA households are looking to take advantage of improved affordability as we move into the spring market. Positive news on trade and geopolitical issues would help improve consumer confidence and home sales in the months ahead.”
TRREB CIO Jason Mercer: “Buyers continued to benefit from substantial negotiating power on price across major market segments in the last month. However, if market conditions continue to tighten, as they did in March, selling prices could start levelling off as we move through the remainder of 2026.”
Translation: enjoy the buyer’s advantage while it lasts. It may not look like this by fall.
The Broader Numbers You Should Know
- Real GDP growth in Q4 2025 was −0.6% — the economy contracted slightly.
- Toronto unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) is 8.1% as of February 2026 — elevated.
- Inflation (year-over-year CPI) was 1.8% in February 2026 — within range.
- Employment growth in Toronto was just 0.1% in February — essentially flat.
The macro picture is not rosy. That is part of why buyers have been cautious. But cautious buyers create the conditions that exist right now — more choice, more negotiating room, less panic. At some point, the economy stabilizes, confidence returns, and those conditions reverse.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is now a good time to buy a home in the GTA?
Based on March 2026 data, conditions are more favourable for buyers than they have been in several years. Prices are down 6 to 9 percent year-over-year depending on home type, active listings are elevated at 21,596, and competition is manageable. The risk of waiting is that new listings are already falling — down 16.7% year-over-year — and the supply advantage buyers currently have will erode if that trend continues into spring.
Will GTA home prices drop further in 2026?
The March 2026 data does not support a significant further decline. The MLS Home Price Index composite was down 7.4% year-over-year, but month-over-month prices have been essentially flat since January. TRREB’s own analysis suggests prices could start levelling off if market conditions continue to tighten. A further 10% drop from current levels is not what the data indicates.
Which home type offers the best value for first-time buyers right now?
Condo apartments have seen the steepest price correction — down 9.1% year-over-year GTA-wide, with the City of Toronto average at $648,287. Inventory in this segment is the deepest and negotiating power is highest. Townhouses are the next strongest value, averaging $850,266 GTA-wide, and offer more space for buyers who cannot stretch to a detached. Both are worth looking at closely right now.
What is happening to home prices in Brampton and Mississauga specifically?
In Peel Region, the average sale price in March 2026 was $956,714 overall. Brampton averaged $892,085 and Mississauga averaged $966,615. Both are down compared to a year ago. Detached homes in Brampton averaged $1,030,673 and in Mississauga $1,159,992 — meaningfully below City of Toronto detached prices, which averaged $1,613,066. Peel Region continues to offer better value per square foot for first-time buyers priced out of the 416.
How long are homes sitting on the market right now?
In March 2026, the average listing days on market across the GTA was 31 days, down from 36 days in February. Average property days on market was 47. This means the market moved faster in March than in the two prior months — buyers are deciding more quickly and the February slowdown appears to have reversed.
What is the Bank of Canada rate right now and how does it affect my mortgage?
The Bank of Canada overnight rate is currently 2.3%, unchanged from February. The prime rate is 4.5%. One-year fixed mortgage rates are running around 5.49%, with 3-year and 5-year fixed rates at approximately 6.05% and 6.09% respectively. These are not historically low rates, but they are stable and workable for buyers who have been stress-tested at the qualifying rate. If you are unsure what you qualify for at current rates, that is the first number to nail down before searching.
The Window Is Open. Here Is How to Use It.
The GTA market data is pointing in one direction: spring 2026 is a real buying opportunity. Prices are down, inventory is elevated, and competition is manageable. That combination does not last indefinitely — March showed us it is already starting to shift.
What I can do for you in one conversation: tell you exactly what is happening in the neighbourhood and home type you are targeting, run your real budget numbers including stress test and closing costs, and help you understand whether what you are looking at is actually good value right now. Not a general answer. Your specific answer.
Call or text me directly. If you are ready to move this spring, let’s make sure you move smart.
Gaurang Shah — Real Estate Broker, Shah Team | 647-892-2411
Data Sources
- TRREB Market Watch — March 2026 (released April 7, 2026)
- TRREB Market Watch — February 2026 (released March 5, 2026)
All data reflects firm transactions on the TRREB MLS System. This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or legal advice.
